2022 Week Two Picks

 

Week two of the 2022 college football season will be full of historic firsts and facts.

Before I get started with my week two picks, let's check out how things went with last week's games:

Week One Picks Record: 14-3

2022 Season Picks Record: 14-3

Each game I pick today will have some kind of historic fact or event included with the pick. Hope you enjoy my week two picks!

Saturday 9/10

12:00 (Noon) Games

#1 Alabama (-20) @ Texas

Fun Fact:  This will be the first meeting between these schools since the 2009-2010 National Championship, where Nick Saban won the first of six National Championships as head coach of Alabama.

I fully expect Alabama quarterback Bryce Young to shine against the Longhorns. Young threw for five touchdowns, ran for another, and rushed over the century mark in Alabama's shutout defeat of Utah State in week one. He looks like a player poised to repeat, as right now he's the main frontrunner to win the Heisman Trophy, even though we only through the first week of the season.

The Crimson Tide defense will be a lot tougher on Texas than the one it faced last week with Louisiana-Monroe. The Longhorns won the game soundly but were held to just 5-of-13 on third downs by the Warhawks.

This is also a game where Nick Saban faces off against one of his former assistants, with Steve Sarkisian leading Texas as head coach for just his second season. Kirby Smart, head coach at Georgia, has been the only former assistant to defeat Saban's squad on the gridiron.

This game has a lot of storylines, but Saturday will be another chapter between these schools where Alabama dominates. This will be a regular matchup when Texas joins the SEC in 2025.

The Pick: Alabama 49 Texas 10

South Carolina @ #16 Arkansas (-8.5)

Fun Fact: These two schools joined the SEC in 1992, and were cross-division foes on each school's regular season schedule until 2014, when the league re-aligned after adding Missouri and Texas A&M to the conference.

This game will be the battle of some big name quarterbacks with South Carolina's Spencer Rattler facing off against Arkansas dual-threat KJ Jefferson. Both teams faced quality Group of Five opponents in week one games, and both teams came away with victories in week one.

The old saying applies here that a "team's biggest improvement comes in between week one and week two." If the South Carolina offense can find a rhythm and make some big plays in all phases, then 8.5 points will be a tough cover for Arkansas. A lot of games between these two teams have been one-sided affairs throughout numerous meetings since joining the conference in 1992. I fully expect this game to be an outlier, and this matchup could come down to a single play late.

I think if South Carolina's defensive front can manage the Arkansas ground attack, then the young Gamecock secondary will really get a chance to shine. Total homer pick here, but give me the Gamecocks!

The Pick: South Carolina 28 Arkansas 24

#23 Wake Forest (-12.5) @ Vanderbilt

Fun Fact:  This will be the 17th meeting between these two schools, who will play for the first time in nearly a decade, when a James Franklin-led Vanderbilt team defeated Jim Grobe's Demon Deacons 55-21 in Winston-Salem, North Carolina

It is very refreshing for me to actually be intrigued by a matchup that features Vanderbilt and Wake Forest. Neither team is a historical powerhouse program in college football history, but this meeting carries a bit of significance to both teams.

A win for Vanderbilt would result in the Commodores being 3-0 to start the 2022 season, which is crucial as the 'Dores begin a difficult stretch of games on the schedule that lead into SEC play. A win Saturday could potentially vault Vanderbilt into one of the final spots of the top 25, but let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet...

Wake Forest starting quarterback Sam Hartman returns to the field this week, after missing Wake Forest's season opener against FCS foe VMI. Wake Forest backup quarterback Mitch Griffis led the Demon Deacons last week and showed that he could preform in the absence of Hartman. 

12.5 points seems a bit much, but Vandy knows how to find its way to the losing end, at least historically. Saturday could prove to be a heartbreaker for either team, but I'm confident that team will most likely be Vanderbilt.

The Pick: Wake Forest 34 Vanderbilt 31

Missouri @ Kansas State (-7.5)

Fun Fact:  Saturday marks the 98th time these two programs have played each other in football, dating back to the first meeting between the Tigers and Wildcats in 1909, which was a 3-0 victory for Missouri. This is the first non-conference game these two schools have played against each other, and the last meeting was a Kansas State win in 2011. Prior to the Wildcats 2011 victory, Missouri had won the last five  matchups from 2006 to 2010. Prior to Missouri winning in 2006, Kansas State was on a 13-game win streak that dated from 1993 to 2005 against the Tigers.

Missouri looked like there has been some improvement since Eli Drinkwitz took over as head coach. I expect Missouri to prioritize physicality and rushing the football. 

I'm thinking that Vegas is still trying to become fully calibrated for setting point spreads during the 2022 season. I disagree with spotting Kansas State 7.5 points in this game, even though I'm sure Manhattan, Kansas will be plenty rowdy due to facing off against an old conference rival like Missouri. That said, I think this is a big time non-conference "W" for Coach Drinkwitz and the Tigers, and Missouri goes into week three with some positive momentum at the start of the 2022 season.

The Pick: Missouri 38 Kansas State 27

3:30 (Afternoon) Games

Appalachian State @ #6 Texas A&M (-19)

Fun Fact: This will be the first meeting all-time between these two schools in football.

Texas A&M welcomes an 0-1 Appalachian State team into College Station, as both teams seek improvements after disappointing and underwhelming performances in week one.

Texas A&M is hoping to avoid another weather delay, and the Aggies are hoping for a vast improvement in sustaining drives and offensive consistency.

Appalachian State hopes to shock the country by pulling off the upset at Kyle Field Saturday, but the Mountaineers will have to preform astoundingly better than the effort against North Carolina last week at home. Appalachian State saw an opportunity to defeat an in-state, Power Five rival for the second straight season, but the Tarheels pulled off a wild 63-61 victory in the fourth quarter that stunned the home crowd in Boone, North Carolina.

"Astoundingly better" from the above paragraph translates into "exponentially better," if Appalachian State wants to pull off an early-season upset of Jimbo Fisher's Aggies. Texas A&M goes into game two of a 2022 season that has placed high expectations for this team.

A lot of folks are second-guessing Texas A&M after a bit of slow start in week one's game against FCS foe Sam Houston State, but I'm not buying into that opinion just yet. The Aggies have a lot of new personnel that are trying to gel as a unit, and football is a complicated game, especially at the highest level of the college version.

I think we see a much sharper version of Texas A&M's offense, and the Aggies cover the 19-point spread that Vegas has set.

The Pick: Texas A&M 45 Appalachian State 17

#24 Tennessee (-6) @ #17 Pittsburgh

Fun Fact:  Saturday's game against Pittsburgh will be the fourth time that Tennessee starting quarterback Hendon Hooker has faced off against the Panthers, as he'll face Pitt for the second time as a Volunteer. Hooker also faced Pittsburgh twice while playing at Virginia Tech. Following this game Tennessee and Pittsburgh will have met four times in program history, which will also be the number of times Hooker has faced the Panthers in his college career. This will also be the first game in Pittsburgh's history where the Panthers host an SEC opponent at home.

Vegas threw last year's matchup of these two schools out of the window, as Tennessee goes on the road as six-point favorite against Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi's Panthers, even though Pittsburgh defeated Tennessee last season and is ranked higher than the Vols.

This will be a major early-season test for Hooker, and a road win would be a critical increase in Tennesee's chances of having a special year. This game should be fun, but Tennessee runs an explosive offense that will control the tempo and force Pitt into some crucial mistakes.

The Pick: Tennessee 30 Pittsburgh 23

4:00 (Afternoon) Games

Samford @ #2 Georgia (No Line)

Fun Fact: Both schools are known as the "Bulldogs."

Georgia gets a tune-up game against a good team out of the Southern Conference. The only thing I really have to say about this one is that I think Samford has potentially a small chance of finding the end zone, unlike Oregon in week one.

Yep. That's about it for this one.

The Pick: Georgia 63 Samford 10

7:00 & 7:30 (Early Evening) Games

#20 Kentucky @ #12 Florida (-6.5)

Fun Fact: This will be just the fourth time in the history of this matchup where both teams come into the game ranked in the top 25. Florida and Kentucky will meet for 73rd time Saturday evening. Florida had won 31 straight meetings against Kentucky, dating from 1987 to 2017, before the Wildcats defeated the Gators 27-16 during the 2018 season.

Kentucky travels into Gainesville, Florida to meet the Gators in a game that will help shape the standings in the SEC East. Kentucky defeated Florida for just the third time since 1980 last season, en route to a successful campaign last year under head coach Mark Stoops. 

Florida started a new era under head coach Billy Napier with a gigantic win over a top 10 Utah team at home, and the Gators went from being an unranked team to surging up the polls and entering week two as the 12th-best team in the country according to the AP Poll and the 19th in the week two Coach's Poll.

The Wildcats are expected to again be without running back Chris Rodriguez this week, which will be hinderance to Kentucky's offensive production against the Gators, especially as the visiting team. I think "Billy Ball" takes Florida into week three without a loss, and Anthony Richardson makes some big plays in this one.

The Pick: Florida 27 Kentucky 17

Central Arkansas @ #22 Ole Miss (No Line)

Fun Fact: This is the second meeting all-time between these two teams, with Ole Miss winning the only game in the series, 49-27, in a game that was played close to exactly a decade ago on September 1, 2012. 

There's not much to say about this game in my opinion besides that things should go better for the Rebels than a week ago when Ole Miss faced Troy to start the 2022 season. I fully expect for Lane Kiffin to put points up as much and as often as possible to comfort the Ole Miss faithful that were underwhelmed against an opponent from the Sun Belt last week.

The Pick: Ole Miss 63 Central Arkansas 13

San Jose State @ Auburn (-24)

Fun Fact: This is just the third time that these two teams have played against each other in either school's history. Auburn has won the previous two matchups against San Jose State.

Another game where there's not much to say, although I do expect for Tank Bigsby to get a lot of touches in the first three quarters or so. 

The Pick: Auburn 38 San Jose State 13

Southern @ LSU (No Line)

Fun Fact: This is the first all-time meetings between these two schools, which are both located in Louisiana. LSU comes into this game with a 34-game win streak against in-state opponents. 

History will be made as Southern travels to Baton Rouge for the first time ever in the inaugural meeting between these two Louisiana schools. Hopefully, this will be somewhat competitive for the sake of history, but I don't foresee that scenario working out in Southern's favor, especially after the debacle against Florida State on National Television that was Brian Kelly's head coaching debut for LSU.

Kelly would love to comfort a passionate fan base with a smooth, lopsided win against a historic school from the same state, and I see that playing out as planned for LSU in this one.

The Pick: LSU 56 Southern 10

11:00 (Late Night) Game

Mississippi State (-10.5) @ Arizona

Fun Fact: This game marks another first-time meeting between two schools that takes place Saturday. This is the first 11:00 pm kickoff for a SEC team that I can remember. I know several have travel to the West Coast of the United States to play teams from PAC-12, but I don't remember any of those meetings kicking off at 11:00 pm on the East Coast.

Mississippi State looked convincing in its win against Memphis during week one. The Bulldogs will look to carry that momentum into Arizona desert, as Arizona looks to improve after having trouble finding success the last couple seasons. A win would be huge for Arizona and provide some redemption for the PAC-12, but I believe that the Bulldogs bring "more cowbell" into Tuscon, Arizona Saturday night.

The Pick: Mississippi State 37 Arizona 24

Plus Three Games for Week Two

North Carolina (-7) @ Georgia State

Georgia State is my official underdog pick for week two, as North Carolina has some major defensive issues, despite somehow being 2-0 so far in 2022.

The Pick: Georgia State 31 North Carolina 21

Iowa State @ Iowa (-3.5)

Going with the trend, Iowa would be the pick here, as the Hawkeyes have won six-straight games in this rivalry. I wouldn't pick Iowa to cover, as the Hawkeyes offense was only able to put seven points on the board against FCS opponent South Dakota State in week one. While I realize that South Dakota State has had some success at the FCS level, Iowa had some really glaring deficiencies, particularly in the running game. The Hawkeyes were only able to average 1.6 yards/rush and were held to a total of 57 TOTAL rushing yards in the whole game. On top of those two awful states, the Iowa offense converted just 4-of-17 third downs and turned the ball over twice on a fumble and an interception. 

I look for Iowa State to break the Iowa win-streak, and the Cyclones come out on top in this fun, early-season rivalry game.

The Pick: Iowa State 24 Iowa 13 

#9 Baylor @ #21 BYU (-3)

This game kicks off at 10:15 pm on the East Coast, and the contest will join Mississippi State against Arizona as the second legitimate matchup that will air late Saturday night. I really appreciate the physicality that Baylor has shown the last couple of seasons, and the Bears have really prioritized building a stout defensive unit in the Big 12, where teams put a lot of focus into airing out the football on offense and running high-octane offensive schemes that operate at the fastest tempos possible at the college level. 

I see us getting a glimpse of that physicality on Saturday, when Baylor goes into Provo, Utah and quiets what will surely be a fun crowd for BYU.

The Pick: Baylor 35 BYU 27

As always folks, thanks for reading! I hope week two of the 2022 season does not disappoint! Be sure to follow me on Twitter @griffaldo, as I like to tweet during all the games. Let me know which games you would like to see for the "Plus 3" picks for week three, and let me know how I'm doing.

Week two has a lot of historical significance to many of the games, and I don't think it will disappoint!